Gingrich and Cain are neck and neck in Iowa. PPP finds Gingrich in the lead nationally:
There's reason to think that if Cain continues to fade, Gingrich will continue to gain. Among Cain's supporters 73% have a favorable opinion of Gingrich to only 21% with a negative one. That compares to a 33/55 spread for Romney with Cain voters and a 32/53 one for Perry. They like Gingrich a whole lot more than they do the other serious candidates in the race.
Jamelle Bouie doesn't think Newt's recent uptick in some polls means much:
Like Cain, Gingrich has done few of the things necessary to building a viable campaign for the presidential nomination. Large chunks of his time have been spent outside of the three early primary states, where his organizations are threadbare. He has $300,000 cash on hand, compared to the millions raised by Romney and Texas Governor Rick Perry, and has few endorsements from Republican Party activists and lawmakers. According to Mark Blumenthal’s poll of “power outsiders,” only 20 percent say they stand a good chance of endorsing the former House Speaker.
Jennifer Rubin piles on:
I agree that Gingrich will benefit for some time from Herman Cain’s and Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s woes. It is ironic that the feisty base, which wants to fight, fight, fight against the Democrats, would consider the last GOP speaker of the House to get badly rolled by the White House. But in short order not only his personal baggage but his embrace of decidedly unconservative ideas and ethical problems will become a turnoff for many evangelicals, the group the not-Romney candidate must capture. For all of his flash and humor, Gingrich remains a loose cannon and an inconsistent conservative — not exactly what the not-Romney crowd is looking for.
John Cassidy is marginally less dismissive:
The probability of him winning the nomination is small. Intrade, the political betting market, currently puts it at 11.6 per cent, which sounds about right. (Romney’s odds of winning are 71.3 per cent.) But that doesn’t mean he can’t mount a semi-serious challenge and makes things interesting.
Chart above from Nate Silver.
0 comments:
Post a Comment